Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 149.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 90¢ · $948 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 50%
$948.11
-$20.41
57.7¢ → 90¢
+56% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 57.1¢ | $358.45 | $384.25 | +$25.8 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $220.55 | $170.4 | -$50.15 | 55% 119-96 (215) |
SE sentrio | Underavg 57.1¢ | $115.66 | $133.72 | +$18.07 | 34% 233-457 (690) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 54¢ | $90.85 | $110.97 | +$20.12 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $85.02 | $85.02 | +$0 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 42.7¢ | $63.99 | $50.99 | -$13 | 51% 299-291 (590) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $17 | $7 | -$10 | 42% 230-315 (545) |
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $17 | $5.75 | -$11.25 | 65% 175-96 (271) |
Invested
$358.45
Value
$384.25
PnL
+$25.8
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$220.55
Value
$170.4
PnL
-$50.15
Record
55%
119-96 (215)
Invested
$115.66
Value
$133.72
PnL
+$18.07
Record
34%
233-457 (690)
Invested
$90.85
Value
$110.97
PnL
+$20.12
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$85.02
Value
$85.02
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$63.99
Value
$50.99
PnL
-$13
Record
51%
299-291 (590)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$17
Value
$7
PnL
-$10
Record
42%
230-315 (545)
Invested
$17
Value
$5.75
PnL
-$11.25
Record
65%
175-96 (271)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.