Spread: Penn Quakers (-7.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Navy Midshipmen (50%) · Navy Midshipmen at 86¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Penn Quakers14¢Navy Midshipmen86¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Navy Midshipmen

Consensus Traders

Navy Midshipmen 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 86.3¢

+52% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNavy Midshipmen at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Navy Midshipmen

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Penn Quakers14%

Navy Midshipmen86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Navy Midshipmen3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,386

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Penn Quakers3 traders

Total Value$154.08

Total Shares351

Combined PnL-$10.46

Navy Midshipmen — 50%Penn Quakers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Navy Midshipmenavg 63.1¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$559.01	55% 718-583 (1301)
HO HomeRunHazard	Navy Midshipmenavg 47.4¢	$733.53	$1.3K	+$570.59	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
GL glennyorkshireARB<$100	Penn Quakersavg 52.7¢	$1.1K	$354.18	-$723.8	50% 53-52 (105)
└ Penn Quakers leg	Penn Quakersavg 52.7¢	$1.0K	$274.65	-$756.11
└ Navy Midshipmen leg	Navy Midshipmenavg 51¢	$47.22	$79.53	+$32.31
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Penn Quakersavg 31.9¢	$403.94	$195.45	-$204.58	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
└ Penn Quakers leg	Penn Quakersavg 31.9¢	$295.45	$116.8	-$197.69
└ Navy Midshipmen leg	Navy Midshipmenavg 95.1¢	$85.54	$78.65	-$6.89
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Penn Quakersavg 47.6¢	$394.94	$153.13	-$77.34	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ Navy Midshipmen leg	Navy Midshipmenavg 50.9¢	$68.69	$122.17	+$50.91
└ Penn Quakers leg	Penn Quakersavg 47.6¢	$155.26	$30.96	-$128.25
RN1CTR	Penn Quakersavg 42.6¢	$118.01	$116.09	-$1.93	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
PA Pan9X<$100	Navy Midshipmenavg 72.4¢	$77.9	$43.37	-$4.67	49% 684-724 (1408)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Penn Quakersavg 51¢	$45.69	$36.73	-$8.96	9% 24-239 (263)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Penn Quakersavg 38¢	$3.94	$1.26	+$0.42	58% 3212-2312 (5524)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Navy Midshipmen

Invested

$1,244.2

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$559.01

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

HomeRunHazard

Navy Midshipmen

Invested

$733.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$570.59

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

glennyorkshireARB<$100

Penn Quakers

Invested

$1,123.34

Value

$354.18

PnL

-$723.8

Record

50%

53-52 (105)

Both legs:

Penn Quakers$1,027.2952.7¢-$756.11

Navy Midshipmen$47.2251¢+$32.31

FlaznorpARB<$100

Penn Quakers

Invested

$403.94

Value

$195.45

PnL

-$204.58

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

Both legs:

Penn Quakers$295.4531.9¢-$197.69

Navy Midshipmen$85.5495.1¢-$6.89

38791873984189ARB<$100

Penn Quakers

Invested

$394.94

Value

$153.13

PnL

-$77.34

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

Navy Midshipmen$68.6950.9¢+$50.91

Penn Quakers$155.2647.6¢-$128.25

RN1CTR

Penn Quakers

Invested

$118.01

Value

$116.09

PnL

-$1.93

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

Pan9X<$100

Navy Midshipmen

Invested

$77.9

Value

$43.37

PnL

-$4.67

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Penn Quakers

Invested

$45.69

Value

$36.73

PnL

-$8.96

Record

24-239 (263)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Penn Quakers

Invested

$3.94

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.42

Record

58%

3212-2312 (5524)

Research grade

AvoidNavy Midshipmen at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Navy Midshipmen

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Navy Midshipmen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.9%

86.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.