Spread: Richmond Spiders (-1.5)
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Richmond Spiders (67%) · Richmond Spiders at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Richmond Spiders
9
Richmond Spiders 67%
$1.4K
$70.76
55.8¢ → 70.5¢
+26% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidRichmond Spiders at 71%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IC ic4creamCTR | Temple Owlsavg 50.7¢ | $595.49 | $599.36 | +$3.87 | 56% 2876-2262 (5138) |
 RN1 | Richmond Spidersavg 78¢ | $210.46 | $215.85 | +$5.4 | 53% 70213-61793 (132006) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Richmond Spidersavg 49.6¢ | $186.01 | $185.74 | -$0.28 | 54% 19989-16868 (36857) |
 0xheavy888 | Richmond Spidersavg 49¢ | $163.19 | $164.86 | +$1.66 | 56% 8773-6961 (15734) |
38 38791873984189 | Richmond Spidersavg 49.4¢ | $203.38 | $164.02 | +$65.05 | 48% 70290-75979 (146269) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Temple Owlsavg 22¢ | $54.55 | $49.59 | -$4.96 | 51% 47280-44570 (91850) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Temple Owlsavg 51¢ | $37.88 | $37.88 | +$0 | 49% 8559-8732 (17291) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Richmond Spidersavg 49.5¢ | $18.33 | $10.5 | +$0.17 | 52% 27270-24782 (52052) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Richmond Spidersavg 52¢ | $2.63 | $2.48 | -$0.15 | 52% 9515-8627 (18142) |
Invested
$595.49
Value
$599.36
PnL
+$3.87
Record
56%
2876-2262 (5138)
RN1Invested
$210.46
Value
$215.85
PnL
+$5.4
Record
53%
70213-61793 (132006)
Invested
$186.01
Value
$185.74
PnL
-$0.28
Record
54%
19989-16868 (36857)
0xheavy888Invested
$163.19
Value
$164.86
PnL
+$1.66
Record
56%
8773-6961 (15734)
Invested
$203.38
Value
$164.02
PnL
+$65.05
Record
48%
70290-75979 (146269)
Invested
$54.55
Value
$49.59
PnL
-$4.96
Record
51%
47280-44570 (91850)
Invested
$37.88
Value
$37.88
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
8559-8732 (17291)
Invested
$18.33
Value
$10.5
PnL
+$0.17
Record
52%
27270-24782 (52052)
Invested
$2.63
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.15
Record
52%
9515-8627 (18142)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ic4cream
CTRTemple Owls — $599.36
RN1
Richmond Spiders — $215.85
HomeRunHazard
Richmond Spiders — $185.74
0xheavy888
Richmond Spiders — $164.86
38791873984189
Richmond Spiders — $164.02
Flaznorp
CTRTemple Owls — $49.59
RLWG
CTRTemple Owls — $37.88
Pan9X
Richmond Spiders — $10.5
ameisgoat11
Richmond Spiders — $2.48