Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. South Carolina Gamecocks: O/U 129.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 44¢ · $766 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 75%
$765.58
-$113.07
47¢ → 43.5¢
-7% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 47.5¢ | $468.35 | $375.7 | -$92.65 | 57% 3183-2408 (5591) |
IC ic4cream | Underavg 53¢ | $305.5 | $299.78 | -$5.71 | 2% 8-447 (455) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $38.91 | $32.15 | -$6.77 | 52% 422-389 (811) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $29.61 | $23.94 | -$5.67 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $15.71 | $14.55 | -$1.16 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Underavg 52.9¢ | $8.97 | $8.82 | -$0.15 | 68% 1630-781 (2411) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $9.2 | $8.74 | -$0.46 | 18% 46-213 (259) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $1.9 | -$0.5 | 30% 250-585 (835) |
Invested
$468.35
Value
$375.7
PnL
-$92.65
Record
57%
3183-2408 (5591)
Invested
$305.5
Value
$299.78
PnL
-$5.71
Record
2%
8-447 (455)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$38.91
Value
$32.15
PnL
-$6.77
Record
52%
422-389 (811)
Invested
$29.61
Value
$23.94
PnL
-$5.67
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
$15.71
Value
$14.55
PnL
-$1.16
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
Invested
$8.97
Value
$8.82
PnL
-$0.15
Record
68%
1630-781 (2411)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$8.74
PnL
-$0.46
Record
18%
46-213 (259)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.5
Record
30%
250-585 (835)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.