Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 40¢ · $251 held · ended Nov 3

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$251.15

Combined PnL

$55.73

Smart Money Entry

28.6¢ → 40¢

+40% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$195.49

Total Shares481

Combined PnL+$54.93

No4 traders

Total Value$55.66

Total Shares93

Combined PnL+$0.79

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$122.39	$174.7	+$52.31	58% 50265-36309 (86574)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 60¢	$24	$24	+$1	52% 1153-1075 (2228)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.2¢	$13.14	$13.63	+$0.49	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 61¢	$12.66	$12.46	-$0.21	57% 12255-9317 (21572)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 60¢	$12	$12	+$0	54% 1184-1023 (2207)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 60¢	$7.2	$7.2	-$0	51% 1089-1037 (2126)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$3.8	$5.84	+$2.05	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.2¢	$1.23	$1.32	+$0.09	51% 7648-7364 (15012)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$122.39

Value

$174.7

PnL

+$52.31

Record

58%

50265-36309 (86574)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$24

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

1153-1075 (2228)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.14

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$0.49

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$12.66

Value

$12.46

PnL

-$0.21

Record

57%

12255-9317 (21572)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$12

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1184-1023 (2207)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1089-1037 (2126)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$5.84

PnL

+$2.05

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.