Will CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$3.0K
$41.75
96.1¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$61.18 | 58% 3762-2719 (6481) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 96.1¢ | $706.35 | $669.04 | -$37.3 | 50% 1414-1418 (2832) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96.8¢ | $347.25 | $347.36 | +$0.11 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.3¢ | $276.36 | $289.74 | +$13.38 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 96¢ | $98.28 | $101.01 | +$2.73 | 31% 171-389 (560) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $37.21 | $38.62 | +$1.41 | 25% 219-662 (881) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $4.84 | $5.07 | +$0.24 | 38% 253-414 (667) |
RN1Invested
$1,528.05
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$61.18
Record
58%
3762-2719 (6481)
Invested
$706.35
Value
$669.04
PnL
-$37.3
Record
50%
1414-1418 (2832)
Invested
$347.25
Value
$347.36
PnL
+$0.11
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$276.36
Value
$289.74
PnL
+$13.38
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$98.28
Value
$101.01
PnL
+$2.73
Record
31%
171-389 (560)
Invested
$37.21
Value
$38.62
PnL
+$1.41
Record
25%
219-662 (881)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$5.07
PnL
+$0.24
Record
38%
253-414 (667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.