CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 62¢ · $583 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
1 arb excluded
$583.35
$4.16
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 64.8¢ | $581.29 | $488.5 | -$92.79 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 64.8¢ | $491.56 | $329.76 | -$161.79 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 31.9¢ | $89.73 | $158.74 | +$69.01 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $33.83 | $37.66 | +$3.83 | 58% 3757-2710 (6467) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $12.88 | $14.26 | +$1.38 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $11.41 | $11.41 | +$0 | 31% 170-383 (553) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $11.52 | $10.5 | -$1.02 | 37% 191-330 (521) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $9.54 | $8.96 | -$0.58 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $7.38 | $8.17 | +$0.79 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $4.13 | $3.88 | -$0.25 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
Invested
$581.29
Value
$488.5
PnL
-$92.79
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$33.83
Value
$37.66
PnL
+$3.83
Record
58%
3757-2710 (6467)
Invested
$12.88
Value
$14.26
PnL
+$1.38
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$11.41
Value
$11.41
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
170-383 (553)
Invested
$11.52
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$1.02
Record
37%
191-330 (521)
Invested
$9.54
Value
$8.96
PnL
-$0.58
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
Invested
$7.38
Value
$8.17
PnL
+$0.79
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$4.13
Value
$3.88
PnL
-$0.25
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.