CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 5.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
2 arb excluded
$5.0K
$995.27
44.4¢ → 100¢
+125% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xNuttawut | Overavg 44.5¢ | $902.9 | $2.0K | +$1.1K | 52% 24-22 (46) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 46.8¢ | $2.2K | $1.9K | -$315.57 | 50% 1414-1418 (2832) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.2K | -$557.6 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44.6¢ | $461.21 | $703.23 | +$242.02 | |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 40¢ | $744.86 | $595.65 | -$149.21 | 25% 219-662 (881) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 33.2¢ | $396.3 | $452.85 | +$56.55 | 58% 3762-2719 (6481) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 33.2¢ | $328.3 | $316.85 | -$11.45 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 34¢ | $68 | $136 | +$68 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $20.1 | $47.81 | +$27.71 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $4.28 | $10.28 | +$6 | 25% 220-643 (863) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $1.6 | -$1.75 | 31% 171-389 (560) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 29.4¢ | $13.27 | $0.02 | -$13.25 | 25% 219-662 (881) |
Invested
$902.9
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
52%
24-22 (46)
Invested
$2,222.55
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$315.57
Record
50%
1414-1418 (2832)
Both legs:
Invested
$744.86
Value
$595.65
PnL
-$149.21
Record
25%
219-662 (881)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$396.3
Value
$452.85
PnL
+$56.55
Record
58%
3762-2719 (6481)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.1
Value
$47.81
PnL
+$27.71
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$4.28
Value
$10.28
PnL
+$6
Record
25%
220-643 (863)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$1.6
PnL
-$1.75
Record
31%
171-389 (560)
Invested
$13.27
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$13.25
Record
25%
219-662 (881)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.