CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: Both Teams to Score

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 50¢ · $372 held · ended Nov 3

Yes50¢No50¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$371.8

Combined PnL

$12.69

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$140.34

Total Shares249

Combined PnL+$12.72

No3 traders

Total Value$60.27

Total Shares56

Combined PnL-$0.02

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$159.75	$171.19	+$11.44	51% 24195-22931 (47126)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.2¢	$169.39	$125.23	-$1.97
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.2¢	$32.54	$45.95	+$13.41
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$99.04	$99.8	+$0.76	52% 1151-1073 (2224)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 35.4¢	$25.58	$37.91	+$12.33	50% 20688-20949 (41637)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 65¢	$27.33	$31.64	-$0.37	54% 1184-1019 (2203)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 63¢	$27.25	$27.88	+$0.63	52% 1138-1033 (2171)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.63	-$0.38	58% 50255-36294 (86549)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 65¢	$1.04	$0.76	-$0.28	51% 7646-7363 (15009)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$159.75

Value

$171.19

PnL

+$11.44

Record

51%

24195-22931 (47126)

Both legs:

No$169.3964.2¢-$1.97

Yes$32.5437.2¢+$13.41

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.04

Value

$99.8

PnL

+$0.76

Record

52%

1151-1073 (2224)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.58

Value

$37.91

PnL

+$12.33

Record

50%

20688-20949 (41637)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$27.33

Value

$31.64

PnL

-$0.37

Record

54%

1184-1019 (2203)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$27.25

Value

$27.88

PnL

+$0.63

Record

52%

1138-1033 (2171)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.38

Record

58%

50255-36294 (86549)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$0.28

Record

51%

7646-7363 (15009)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.