Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Reus FC Reddis vs. Barakaldo CF: O/U 1.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 43¢ · $602 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 14%
$601.74
-$112.6
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E4 e46m3 | Over | $367.44 | $367.44 | -$89.46 | 67% 27476-13829 (41305) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Underavg 50.7¢ | $104.53 | $87.64 | -$14.82 | 47% 11713-13434 (25147) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Overavg 46.2¢ | $41.61 | $51.75 | +$0 | 52% 1380-1295 (2675) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $56.95 | $48.87 | -$8.08 | 58% 46700-33657 (80357) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Overavg 46.8¢ | $24.14 | $29.63 | -$0.31 | 53% 1430-1268 (2698) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Overavg 49.2¢ | $9.12 | $10.65 | +$1.57 | 50% 1329-1304 (2633) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $6.7 | $5.75 | -$1.5 | 53% 2579-2259 (4838) |
Invested
$367.44
Value
$367.44
PnL
-$89.46
Record
67%
27476-13829 (41305)
Invested
$104.53
Value
$87.64
PnL
-$14.82
Record
47%
11713-13434 (25147)
Invested
$41.61
Value
$51.75
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
1380-1295 (2675)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$56.95
Value
$48.87
PnL
-$8.08
Record
58%
46700-33657 (80357)
Invested
$24.14
Value
$29.63
PnL
-$0.31
Record
53%
1430-1268 (2698)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$10.65
PnL
+$1.57
Record
50%
1329-1304 (2633)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$6.7
Value
$5.75
PnL
-$1.5
Record
53%
2579-2259 (4838)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.