UE Tavernes vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 54¢ · $363 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$362.58
-$91.36
73.9¢ → 54¢
-27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
163h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 75¢ | $300.84 | $212.55 | -$88.29 | 50% 20420-20739 (41159) |
DI dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $21.45 | $45.83 | +$24.38 | 47% 10232-11605 (21837) |
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $56.44 | $43.99 | -$12.04 | 61% 907-592 (1499) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $57.67 | $41.87 | -$15.4 | 58% 49623-35721 (85344) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $4.34 | $8.88 | +$4.53 | 57% 12069-9156 (21225) |
IW iWasEnough<$100 | Noavg 76.2¢ | $8.68 | $6.21 | -$2.48 | 51% 11725-11123 (22848) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $5.33 | $3.26 | -$2.06 | 51% 7458-7190 (14648) |
Invested
$300.84
Value
$212.55
PnL
-$88.29
Record
50%
20420-20739 (41159)
Invested
$21.45
Value
$45.83
PnL
+$24.38
Record
47%
10232-11605 (21837)
Invested
$56.44
Value
$43.99
PnL
-$12.04
Record
61%
907-592 (1499)
Invested
$57.67
Value
$41.87
PnL
-$15.4
Record
58%
49623-35721 (85344)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$4.34
Value
$8.88
PnL
+$4.53
Record
57%
12069-9156 (21225)
Invested
$8.68
Value
$6.21
PnL
-$2.48
Record
51%
11725-11123 (22848)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.33
Value
$3.26
PnL
-$2.06
Record
51%
7458-7190 (14648)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.