UE Tavernes vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 98¢ · $671 held · ended Nov 10

Over98¢Under2¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$671.32

Combined PnL

$12.11

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 97.7¢

+18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over98%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$640.28

Total Shares640

Combined PnL+$7.23

Under4 traders

Total Value$31.04

Total Shares994

Combined PnL+$4.88

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 79.7¢	$429.31	$437.03	+$7.72	50% 1421-1422 (2843)
dips.<$100	Overavg 87¢	$87	$98.2	+$11.2	42% 208-286 (494)
RN1<$100	Overavg 96.2¢	$63.75	$64.05	+$0.3	58% 3766-2722 (6488)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 78.6¢	$52.98	$40.99	-$11.98	31% 174-392 (566)
MA maxiplayerCTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$18.46	$28.15	+$9.69	— 2-1 (3)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$1.6	$1.4	-$0.2	25% 224-665 (889)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$2.11	$0.78	-$1.33	26% 226-645 (871)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$4	$0.72	-$3.28	25% 222-667 (889)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$429.31

Value

$437.03

PnL

+$7.72

Record

50%

1421-1422 (2843)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$87

Value

$98.2

PnL

+$11.2

Record

42%

208-286 (494)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$63.75

Value

$64.05

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

3766-2722 (6488)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$52.98

Value

$40.99

PnL

-$11.98

Record

31%

174-392 (566)

maxiplayerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.46

Value

$28.15

PnL

+$9.69

Record

—

2-1 (3)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

25%

224-665 (889)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.11

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$1.33

Record

26%

226-645 (871)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$3.28

Record

25%

222-667 (889)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.