Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CF Trival Valderas vs. CD Leganés end in a draw?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 11¢ · $129 held · ends Nov 10

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$129.1

Combined PnL

$2.29

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$112.5

Total Shares113

Combined PnL+$1.79

Yes5 traders

Total Value$16.6

Total Shares163

Combined PnL+$0.5

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$68.09	$69.45	+$1.36	50% 1378-1394 (2772)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$32.72	$33.03	+$0.31	29% 154-375 (529)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 88¢	$26.51	$10.02	+$0.12	48% 207-227 (434)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$5.5	$5.5	+$0	24% 204-633 (837)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$4.5	$5	+$0.5	24% 201-627 (828)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$3.51	$3.51	+$0	24% 200-618 (818)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2	$2	+$0	24% 200-638 (838)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.59	$0.59	+$0	44% 78-101 (179)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$68.09

Value

$69.45

PnL

+$1.36

Record

50%

1378-1394 (2772)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$32.72

Value

$33.03

PnL

+$0.31

Record

29%

154-375 (529)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$26.51

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

207-227 (434)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

204-633 (837)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

24%

201-627 (828)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.51

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

200-618 (818)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

200-638 (838)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

78-101 (179)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.