Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will CE Sabadell FC win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 41¢ · $102 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$101.75
-$0.3
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 41.4¢ | $46.54 | $45.03 | -$1.51 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41.4¢ | $24.78 | $24.21 | -$0.57 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 62.2¢ | $21.76 | $20.82 | -$0.95 | |
TH TheComboConnoisseur<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $31.82 | $33.81 | +$1.99 | 53% 1083-955 (2038) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.2¢ | $8.82 | $7.9 | -$0.92 | 52% 1146-1041 (2187) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.8¢ | $7.51 | $6.78 | -$0.72 | 52% 1158-1077 (2235) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $10.5 | $4.05 | -$0.57 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $3 | $2.97 | -$0.03 | 58% 50268-36310 (86578) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.2¢ | $1.27 | $1.22 | -$0.05 | 51% 7648-7364 (15012) |
Invested
$46.54
Value
$45.03
PnL
-$1.51
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Both legs:
Invested
$31.82
Value
$33.81
PnL
+$1.99
Record
53%
1083-955 (2038)
Invested
$8.82
Value
$7.9
PnL
-$0.92
Record
52%
1146-1041 (2187)
Invested
$7.51
Value
$6.78
PnL
-$0.72
Record
52%
1158-1077 (2235)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$10.5
Value
$4.05
PnL
-$0.57
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
Invested
$3
Value
$2.97
PnL
-$0.03
Record
58%
50268-36310 (86578)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.27
Value
$1.22
PnL
-$0.05
Record
51%
7648-7364 (15012)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.