Buffalo vs. Ball State: 1H Moneyline
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo (25%) · Buffalo at 50¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Buffalo
8
Buffalo 25%
$5.2K
-$734.53
52.2¢ → 50¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBuffalo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AU auros2 | Ball Stateavg 47.8¢ | $2.9K | $1.7K | +$369.58 | 76% 68-21 (89) |
BA Bagwell306 | Buffaloavg 52¢ | $2.1K | $1.3K | -$800 | 26% 42-118 (160) |
 nigiri99 | Ball Stateavg 46.4¢ | $648.58 | $977.9 | +$329.32 | 52% 235-217 (452) |
 VeryLucky888 | Buffaloavg 52.5¢ | $1.1K | $640 | -$410 | 52% 597-541 (1138) |
CM cm2897 | Ball Stateavg 75¢ | $804.8 | $549.5 | -$255.3 | 49% 1114-1149 (2263) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Ball Stateavg 46¢ | $57.96 | $88.2 | +$30.24 | 38% 99-159 (258) |
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100 | Ball Stateavg 67¢ | $12.06 | $12.6 | +$0.54 | 24% 20-64 (84) |
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100 | Ball Stateavg 45¢ | $1.95 | $3.04 | +$1.08 | 48% 540-590 (1130) |
Invested
$2,909.36
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$369.58
Record
76%
68-21 (89)
Invested
$2,080
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$800
Record
26%
42-118 (160)
nigiri99Invested
$648.58
Value
$977.9
PnL
+$329.32
Record
52%
235-217 (452)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,050
Value
$640
PnL
-$410
Record
52%
597-541 (1138)
Invested
$804.8
Value
$549.5
PnL
-$255.3
Record
49%
1114-1149 (2263)
Invested
$57.96
Value
$88.2
PnL
+$30.24
Record
38%
99-159 (258)
Invested
$12.06
Value
$12.6
PnL
+$0.54
Record
24%
20-64 (84)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$3.04
PnL
+$1.08
Record
48%
540-590 (1130)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
auros2
Ball State — $1.7K
Bagwell306
Buffalo — $1.3K
nigiri99
Ball State — $977.9
VeryLucky888
Buffalo — $640
cm2897
Ball State — $549.5
Forecastication2
Ball State — $88.2
0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283
Ball State — $12.6
Multicoloured-Serf
Ball State — $3.04