Consensus PnL -$183K · win rate 54% (302–255, n=557) · PM monthly #749 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-183.2K
Record
302W / 255L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 557 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1017
Source
PM monthly #749
Record (90 d)
347/563 · 62%
Trades
24
Markets
629
Volume
$2.5M
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 6 on the consensus side (83%)- Mavericks vs. SpursSpurs $262 · now 82¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (82% of 13)
- Bengals vs. Falcons: O/U 52.5Over $245 · now 50¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (50% of 15)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No $232 · now 3¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Spread: FK Radnicki Nis (-1.5)FK Zeleznicar Pancevo $62 · now 52¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- IK Sirius vs. Halmstads BK: O/U 6.5Over $5 · now 5¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Trail Blazers vs. SunsTrail Blazers $2 · now 57¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
Specialties
429 settled consensus markets · held side won 49% at an average entry of 48¢- NBA
+7 pts
side won 56% of 68 · avg entry 49¢
ROI −8%
- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 45% of 96 · avg entry 42¢
ROI −11%
- College Football
+5 pts
side won 50% of 50 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 50% of 123 at an average 53¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 14% of 63)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 52% of 135)
- 50–70¢: 45%(won 54% of 194)
- 70¢ and up: 9%(won 73% of 37)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.