Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Buffalo, while the market favors Ball State (59%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Ball State (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo (33%) · Buffalo at 42¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Ball State59¢Buffalo41¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buffalo

Consensus Traders

Buffalo 33%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$47.53

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 41.5¢

-11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Ball State 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ball State59%

Buffalo42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buffalo3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,571

Combined PnL-$110.22

Ball State6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,977

Combined PnL+$157.76

Buffalo — 33%Ball State — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884CTR	Buffaloavg 46.6¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$110.22	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ball Stateavg 54.7¢	$820	$862.5	+$42.5	55% 719-584 (1303)
PR primm	Ball Stateavg 52.8¢	$343.78	$413.39	+$69.61	61% 870-566 (1436)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Ball Stateavg 49¢	$122.5	$150	+$27.5	29% 176-430 (606)
38 38791873984189	Ball Stateavg 52¢	$127.4	$138.42	+$11.02	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
PA Pan9X	Ball Stateavg 52.7¢	$156.69	$126.95	+$1.08	49% 692-733 (1425)
RN1<$100	Ball Stateavg 51.9¢	$61.29	$67.34	+$6.04	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Buffaloavg 55¢	$7.39	$7.39	+$0	55% 680-552 (1232)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Buffaloavg 55¢	$6.91	$6.91	+$0	57% 3229-2433 (5662)

6512395314597884CTR

Buffalo

Invested

$1,652.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$110.22

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Ball State

Invested

$820

Value

$862.5

PnL

+$42.5

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

primm

Ball State

Invested

$343.78

Value

$413.39

PnL

+$69.61

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Ball State

Invested

$122.5

Value

$150

PnL

+$27.5

Record

29%

176-430 (606)

38791873984189

Ball State

Invested

$127.4

Value

$138.42

PnL

+$11.02

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Pan9X

Ball State

Invested

$156.69

Value

$126.95

PnL

+$1.08

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

RN1<$100

Ball State

Invested

$61.29

Value

$67.34

PnL

+$6.04

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$7.39

Value

$7.39

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$6.91

Value

$6.91

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Ball State 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buffalo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.