Fresno State vs. Utah State
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Fresno State (100%) · Fresno State at 51¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Fresno State
10
Fresno State 100%
$14.5K
-$141.77
49.9¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralFresno State at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Fresno State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IM imjustkenisghey | Fresno Stateavg 50¢ | $6.2K | $6.1K | -$61.78 | 49% 451-468 (919) |
 VeryLucky888 | Fresno Stateavg 49.5¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$32.63 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Fresno Stateavg 50¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$49.32 | 54% 18479-15550 (34029) |
MA MadridTime | Fresno Stateavg 50¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.36 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
LI Limousin | Fresno Stateavg 50¢ | $532.59 | $537.92 | +$5.33 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
 Haradwaith | Fresno Stateavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $495.05 | -$5 | 40% 6648-10054 (16702) |
NM NM-P | Fresno Stateavg 50¢ | $254.55 | $249.37 | -$2.63 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
GC GC-P | Fresno Stateavg 50¢ | $250 | $247.5 | -$2.5 | 64% 10179-5769 (15948) |
FL Flaznorp | Fresno Stateavg 50.7¢ | $150.11 | $145.41 | -$5.08 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Fresno Stateavg 50¢ | $34.61 | $34.19 | -$0.52 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
Invested
$6,181.2
Value
$6.1K
PnL
-$61.78
Record
49%
451-468 (919)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,998.37
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$32.63
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$2,475.13
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$49.32
Record
54%
18479-15550 (34029)
Invested
$1,236.35
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.36
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$532.59
Value
$537.92
PnL
+$5.33
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
HaradwaithInvested
$1,000.1
Value
$495.05
PnL
-$5
Record
40%
6648-10054 (16702)
Invested
$254.55
Value
$249.37
PnL
-$2.63
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$250
Value
$247.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
64%
10179-5769 (15948)
Invested
$150.11
Value
$145.41
PnL
-$5.08
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$34.61
Value
$34.19
PnL
-$0.52
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
imjustkenisghey
Fresno State — $6.1K
VeryLucky888
Fresno State — $3.0K
HomeRunHazard
Fresno State — $2.4K
MadridTime
Fresno State — $1.2K
Limousin
Fresno State — $537.92
Haradwaith
Fresno State — $495.05
NM-P
Fresno State — $249.37
GC-P
Fresno State — $247.5
Flaznorp
Fresno State — $145.41
sentrio
Fresno State — $34.19