Spread: Bowling Green (-2.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bowling Green (89%) · Bowling Green at 81¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 11

Bowling Green81¢Kent State19¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bowling Green

Consensus Traders

Bowling Green 89%

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$226.89

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 81¢

+54% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBowling Green at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bowling Green81%

Kent State19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kent State1 trader

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares9,752

Combined PnL-$953.05

Bowling Green8 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares10,604

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Kent State — 11%Bowling Green — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKent State 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedBowling Green 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bowling Green 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Kent Stateavg 47.3¢	$4.6K	$3.7K	-$953.05	61% 855-553 (1408)
RN1	Bowling Greenavg 53¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$399.62	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bowling Greenavg 52.3¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$384.7	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
65 6512395314597884	Bowling Greenavg 53.1¢	$646.93	$896.05	+$249.12	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
38 38791873984189	Bowling Greenavg 52.3¢	$574.52	$686.18	+$111.67	48% 949-1019 (1968)
PA Pan9X	Bowling Greenavg 52.8¢	$111.61	$107.01	+$17.05	49% 444-470 (914)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Bowling Greenavg 48.5¢	$61.2	$78.81	+$17.61	56% 488-383 (871)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Bowling Greenavg 68¢	$8.84	$9.56	+$0.71	30% 134-317 (451)
GH ghorrock<$100	Bowling Greenavg 59¢	$7.93	$7.39	-$0.54	54% 383-322 (705)

primmCTR

Kent State

Invested

$4,610.2

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$953.05

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

RN1

Bowling Green

Invested

$2,226.03

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$399.62

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bowling Green

Invested

$1,971.53

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$384.7

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

6512395314597884

Bowling Green

Invested

$646.93

Value

$896.05

PnL

+$249.12

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

38791873984189

Bowling Green

Invested

$574.52

Value

$686.18

PnL

+$111.67

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Pan9X

Bowling Green

Invested

$111.61

Value

$107.01

PnL

+$17.05

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$61.2

Value

$78.81

PnL

+$17.61

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

justaluckydude<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$8.84

Value

$9.56

PnL

+$0.71

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

ghorrock<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.39

PnL

-$0.54

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

NeutralBowling Green at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKent State 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedBowling Green 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bowling Green 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bowling Green wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.