Spread: Bowling Green (-3.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (67%) · Kent State at 81¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Bowling Green20¢Kent State80¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kent State

Consensus Traders

Kent State 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$531

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 80.5¢

+74% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bowling Green20%

Kent State81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bowling Green2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,679

Combined PnL+$507.75

Kent State4 traders

Total Value$947.9

Total Shares4,302

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Bowling Green — 33%Kent State — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Bowling Greenavg 54.7¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$514.21	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bowling Greenavg 33.3¢	$826.8	$904.77	+$80.42	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 33.3¢	$536.86	$483.49	-$53.37
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 47.8¢	$287.55	$421.28	+$133.79
PR primm	Kent Stateavg 45.9¢	$1.6K	$845.99	-$739.89	61% 855-553 (1408)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Bowling Greenavg 43.8¢	$529.09	$340.17	-$188.92	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 78.8¢	$194.97	$202.99	+$8.02
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 43.8¢	$334.12	$137.18	-$196.94
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Bowling Greenavg 29.5¢	$119.16	$116.24	+$63.2	49% 446-472 (918)
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 30¢	$26.57	$62.01	+$60.74
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 29.5¢	$53.34	$54.23	+$2.46
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kent Stateavg 48¢	$242.34	$60.58	-$181.75	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
SN SnakeBall	Kent Stateavg 46¢	$149.24	$38.93	-$110.31	49% 220-228 (448)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Bowling Greenavg 69¢	$26.22	$19.76	-$6.46	30% 134-317 (451)
LI Limousin<$100	Kent Stateavg 46¢	$9.2	$2.4	-$6.8	29% 313-784 (1097)

RN1CTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$1,856.36

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$514.21

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$826.8

Value

$904.77

PnL

+$80.42

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Bowling Green$536.8633.3¢-$53.37

Kent State$287.5547.8¢+$133.79

primm

Kent State

Invested

$1,585.88

Value

$845.99

PnL

-$739.89

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$529.09

Value

$340.17

PnL

-$188.92

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Kent State$194.9778.8¢+$8.02

Bowling Green$334.1243.8¢-$196.94

Pan9XARB<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$119.16

Value

$116.24

PnL

+$63.2

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Both legs:

Kent State$26.5730¢+$60.74

Bowling Green$53.3429.5¢+$2.46

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kent State

Invested

$242.34

Value

$60.58

PnL

-$181.75

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

SnakeBall

Kent State

Invested

$149.24

Value

$38.93

PnL

-$110.31

Record

49%

220-228 (448)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$26.22

Value

$19.76

PnL

-$6.46

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Limousin<$100

Kent State

Invested

$9.2

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$6.8

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kent State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.