Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ohio vs. Miami (OH): O/U 49.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 39¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 11

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$268.83

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 38.5¢

-13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares13,457

Combined PnL-$511.97

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,896

Combined PnL+$243.14

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 43.9¢	$4.4K	$3.7K	-$458.08	61% 855-553 (1408)
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Underavg 54.5¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$192.7	62% 1003-623 (1626)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 55.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$80.67	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 44¢	$844.36	$882.74	+$38.38	70% 1655-702 (2357)
RN1CTR	Overavg 45.5¢	$792.97	$677.46	-$115.51	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 56¢	$809.24	$353.58	-$20.48	48% 959-1032 (1991)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 56¢	$284.14	$273.99	-$10.15	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 44¢	$222.3	$232.3	+$10	56% 502-393 (895)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 43¢	$119.12	$127.43	+$8.31	47% 500-558 (1058)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$70.65	$75.58	+$4.93	29% 307-748 (1055)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 54.1¢	$30.83	$16.38	+$0.4	49% 446-472 (918)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$4,422.15

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$458.08

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

PacersThreeandahalf

Under

Invested

$1,499.18

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$192.7

Record

62%

1003-623 (1626)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,287.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$80.67

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$844.36

Value

$882.74

PnL

+$38.38

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$792.97

Value

$677.46

PnL

-$115.51

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$809.24

Value

$353.58

PnL

-$20.48

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$284.14

Value

$273.99

PnL

-$10.15

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$222.3

Value

$232.3

PnL

+$10

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$119.12

Value

$127.43

PnL

+$8.31

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.65

Value

$75.58

PnL

+$4.93

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$30.83

Value

$16.38

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.