Oregon State vs. Houston: O/U 49.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 52¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
1 arb excluded
$4.0K
$46.22
49.5¢ → 52¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 53.7¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$101.52 | 54% 18039-15168 (33207) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$48.65 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51.4¢ | $804.57 | $751.69 | -$52.87 | |
 RN1 | Overavg 47¢ | $619.73 | $686.31 | +$66.57 | 53% 60181-52537 (112718) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR | Underavg 48.6¢ | $569.13 | $561.79 | -$7.34 | 42% 2373-3231 (5604) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 53¢ | $530 | $486.2 | -$8.7 | 58% 45573-32987 (78560) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $20.2 | $15.89 | -$4.3 | 59% 31932-22560 (54492) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $8.52 | $8.52 | +$0 | 58% 50275-36314 (86589) |
Invested
$2,331.99
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$101.52
Record
54%
18039-15168 (33207)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$619.73
Value
$686.31
PnL
+$66.57
Record
53%
60181-52537 (112718)
Invested
$569.13
Value
$561.79
PnL
-$7.34
Record
42%
2373-3231 (5604)
VeryLucky888Invested
$530
Value
$486.2
PnL
-$8.7
Record
58%
45573-32987 (78560)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$15.89
PnL
-$4.3
Record
59%
31932-22560 (54492)
Invested
$8.52
Value
$8.52
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
50275-36314 (86589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.