Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

UMass vs. Toledo: O/U 47.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 44¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 12

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$957.59

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 43.5¢

-18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares13,674

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over6 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares12,940

Combined PnL-$318.78

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 46.6¢	$5.6K	$6.8K	+$1.2K	61% 870-566 (1436)
RN1CTR	Overavg 53.3¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$197.98	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 52.3¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$83.21	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
VI vibing123	Underavg 51¢	$846.35	$937.62	+$91.27	63% 1099-655 (1754)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 52.9¢	$1.0K	$937.08	-$83.44	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.9¢	$840.02	$714.33	-$125.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.6¢	$180.5	$222.75	+$42.25
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 53¢	$758.19	$730.04	-$25.81	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 52.2¢	$406.35	$392.92	-$13.43	55% 719-584 (1303)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 52¢	$113.68	$73.85	+$0.47	49% 692-733 (1425)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$31.27	$32.45	+$1.18	37% 121-203 (324)

primm

Under

Invested

$5,602.92

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$3,211.51

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$197.98

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$2,437.21

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$83.21

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

vibing123

Under

Invested

$846.35

Value

$937.62

PnL

+$91.27

Record

63%

1099-655 (1754)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,020.52

Value

$937.08

PnL

-$83.44

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Both legs:

Over$840.0252.9¢-$125.69

Under$180.544.6¢+$42.25

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$758.19

Value

$730.04

PnL

-$25.81

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$406.35

Value

$392.92

PnL

-$13.43

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$113.68

Value

$73.85

PnL

+$0.47

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

biying88888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.27

Value

$32.45

PnL

+$1.18

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.