Spread: Western Michigan (-14.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan (67%) · Western Michigan at 53¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 11

Western Michigan53¢Akron47¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Western Michigan

Consensus Traders

Western Michigan 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

$144.69

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Western Michigan53%

Akron48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Michigan6 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares25,159

Combined PnL+$166.54

Akron3 traders

Total Value$936.37

Total Shares1,955

Combined PnL-$21.86

Western Michigan — 67%Akron — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperAkron 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWestern Michigan 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Western Michigan 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Western Michiganavg 52¢	$12.3K	$12.4K	+$118.2	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
BA bands1CTR	Akronavg 48¢	$666.47	$659.53	-$6.94	50% 331-328 (659)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Western Michiganavg 52¢	$496.46	$497.64	+$1.18	16% 66-347 (413)
└ Western Michigan leg	Western Michiganavg 52¢	$273	$273	+$0
└ Akron leg	Akronavg 47.7¢	$223.46	$224.64	+$1.18
HO HomeRunHazard	Western Michiganavg 49¢	$336.64	$356.82	+$20.18	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Western Michiganavg 52¢	$350	$350	+$0	60% 3442-2335 (5777)
└ Western Michigan leg	Western Michiganavg 52¢	$182	$182	+$0
└ Akron leg	Akronavg 48¢	$168	$168	+$0
MA MadridTime	Western Michiganavg 49¢	$236.8	$251.3	+$14.5	25% 215-633 (848)
38 38791873984189CTR	Akronavg 51¢	$251.8	$237.3	-$14.5	48% 859-937 (1796)
SN SnakeBall	Western Michiganavg 48¢	$161.28	$174.72	+$13.44	47% 148-167 (315)
PR primmCTR<$100	Akronavg 48¢	$39.96	$39.54	-$0.42	61% 855-553 (1408)
PA Pan9X<$100	Western Michiganavg 52¢	$7.8	$7.8	+$0	48% 421-450 (871)
GH ghorrock<$100	Western Michiganavg 49¢	$10.2	$7.65	+$0.23	53% 323-288 (611)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Western Michigan

Invested

$12,292.38

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$118.2

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

bands1CTR

Akron

Invested

$666.47

Value

$659.53

PnL

-$6.94

Record

50%

331-328 (659)

GC-PARB<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$496.46

Value

$497.64

PnL

+$1.18

Record

16%

66-347 (413)

Both legs:

Western Michigan$27352¢+$0

Akron$223.4647.7¢+$1.18

HomeRunHazard

Western Michigan

Invested

$336.64

Value

$356.82

PnL

+$20.18

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

NM-PARB<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

3442-2335 (5777)

Both legs:

Western Michigan$18252¢+$0

Akron$16848¢+$0

MadridTime

Western Michigan

Invested

$236.8

Value

$251.3

PnL

+$14.5

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

38791873984189CTR

Akron

Invested

$251.8

Value

$237.3

PnL

-$14.5

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

SnakeBall

Western Michigan

Invested

$161.28

Value

$174.72

PnL

+$13.44

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

primmCTR<$100

Akron

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.54

PnL

-$0.42

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

Pan9X<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

ghorrock<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$10.2

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0.23

Record

53%

323-288 (611)

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperAkron 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWestern Michigan 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Western Michigan 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.