Spread: Western Michigan (-17.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan (50%) · Western Michigan at 57¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Western Michigan57¢Akron43¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Western Michigan

Consensus Traders

Western Michigan 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$0.55

Smart Money Entry

42.2¢ → 57.5¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Western Michigan57%

Akron43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Michigan5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares7,483

Combined PnL+$156.49

Akron5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,175

Combined PnL-$155.94

Western Michigan — 50%Akron — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Akron) and the top 1000 (10 on Western Michigan) disagree here.

sniperWestern Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWestern Michigan 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAkron 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Western Michigan 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Western Michiganavg 42¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$100	59% 1121-779 (1900)
CM cm2897	Western Michiganavg 42.5¢	$678.32	$726.18	+$47.86	49% 1097-1127 (2224)
RN1CTR	Akronavg 56.7¢	$699.18	$684.96	-$14.22	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
38 38791873984189CTR	Akronavg 47.2¢	$471.47	$414.59	-$56.89	48% 947-1017 (1964)
SN SnakeBall	Western Michiganavg 43¢	$355.18	$363.44	+$8.26	48% 190-206 (396)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Akronavg 51.7¢	$408.73	$328.26	-$80.47	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Western Michiganavg 42¢	$179.24	$181.06	+$1.82	52% 128-120 (248)
└ Western Michigan leg	Western Michiganavg 42¢	$97.44	$102.08	+$4.64
└ Akron leg	Akronavg 58¢	$81.8	$78.98	-$2.82
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Akronavg 44.6¢	$61.09	$56.86	-$4.24	49% 443-470 (913)
MA MadridTime<$100	Western Michiganavg 42¢	$23.55	$24.67	+$1.12	28% 278-703 (981)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Akronavg 57¢	$7.66	$7.53	-$0.13	54% 383-321 (704)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Western Michiganavg 59¢	$2.94	$2.2	-$0.75	56% 488-383 (871)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Western Michigan

Invested

$2,100

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$100

Record

59%

1121-779 (1900)

cm2897

Western Michigan

Invested

$678.32

Value

$726.18

PnL

+$47.86

Record

49%

1097-1127 (2224)

RN1CTR

Akron

Invested

$699.18

Value

$684.96

PnL

-$14.22

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

38791873984189CTR

Akron

Invested

$471.47

Value

$414.59

PnL

-$56.89

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

SnakeBall

Western Michigan

Invested

$355.18

Value

$363.44

PnL

+$8.26

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

6512395314597884CTR

Akron

Invested

$408.73

Value

$328.26

PnL

-$80.47

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$179.24

Value

$181.06

PnL

+$1.82

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

Both legs:

Western Michigan$97.4442¢+$4.64

Akron$81.858¢-$2.82

Pan9XCTR<$100

Akron

Invested

$61.09

Value

$56.86

PnL

-$4.24

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

MadridTime<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$23.55

Value

$24.67

PnL

+$1.12

Record

28%

278-703 (981)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Akron

Invested

$7.66

Value

$7.53

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$2.94

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.75

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Akron) and the top 1000 (10 on Western Michigan) disagree here.

sniperWestern Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWestern Michigan 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAkron 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Western Michigan 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.