Consensus PnL $1.2M · win rate 56% (3216–2484, n=5700) · PM monthly #30 · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.2M
Record
3216W / 2484L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 5700 settled
Batting Avg
63.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#904
Source
PM monthly #30
Record (90 d)
998/1983 · 50%
Trades
101,090
Markets
6,201
Volume
$48.7M
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 20 of 26 on the consensus side (77%)- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $101K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (72% of 145)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $53K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (62% of 96)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $17K · now 99¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (81% of 113)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?No $13K · now 99¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (62% of 30)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Yes $10K · now 99¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (88% of 32)
- Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes $7.2K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (55% of 11)
- UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Prelims)Jose Delano $6.4K · now 53¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (29% of 14)
- Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes $5.3K · now 99¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (54% of 37)
Specialties
5,769 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 56¢- Elections
+4 pts
side won 82% of 600 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +8%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 98% of 135 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +7%
- College Basketball
+4 pts
side won 54% of 323 · avg entry 50¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 97% of 32 at an average 99¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 19% of 519)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 43% of 1945)
- 50–70¢: 36%(won 53% of 2104)
- 70¢ and up: 21%(won 95% of 1201)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.