Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-11-05?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$3.6K
$296.11
90.4¢ → 99.5¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Late
88h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 98.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | -$2.82 | 53% 24342-21404 (45746) |
RO roscoff | Noavg 75¢ | $932.58 | $1.2K | +$303.4 | 50% 175-172 (347) |
 xxNyx | Noavg 98.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.35 | 82% 1822-408 (2230) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $7.09 | $3.42 | -$3.67 | 51% 6512-6277 (12789) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $1.67 | $0.38 | -$1.29 | 50% 21550-21844 (43394) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $11.1 | $0.21 | -$10.86 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
Invested
$1,246.14
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$2.82
Record
53%
24342-21404 (45746)
Invested
$932.58
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$303.4
Record
50%
175-172 (347)
xxNyxInvested
$1,068.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.35
Record
82%
1822-408 (2230)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$7.09
Value
$3.42
PnL
-$3.67
Record
51%
6512-6277 (12789)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$1.29
Record
50%
21550-21844 (43394)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$11.1
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$10.86
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.