Consensus PnL $110K · win rate 85% (1287–235, n=1522) · hand-picked wallet · holds 77 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$110.1K
Record
1287W / 235L
Win Rate
85.0%
of 1522 settled
Batting Avg
83.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#260
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
41,452
Markets
2,565
Volume
$4.9M
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Top consensus positions
77 in listed consensus markets · 57 of 77 on the consensus side (74%)- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $7.3K · now 71¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (42% of 66)
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?No $3.5K · now 81¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (57% of 23)
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?No $3.2K · now 93¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?No $3.1K · now 84¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No $2.9K · now 85¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (78% of 21)
- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $2.9K · now 71¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (86% of 55)
- Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Yes $2.8K · now 77¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (24% of 22)
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No $2.8K · now 89¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (39% of 24)
Specialties
1,845 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 79¢- Politics
+4 pts
side won 84% of 316 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +3%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 80% of 576 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +2%
- Mentions
+4 pts
side won 82% of 202 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 66% of 70 at an average 71¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 9% of 249)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 51% of 89)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 56% of 108)
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 97% of 1399)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.