Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-11-09?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$22.15

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 99.5¢

+15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,647

Combined PnL+$232.03

No5 traders

Total Value$155.05

Total Shares3,258

Combined PnL-$254.18

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 86.5¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$231.38	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 11.7¢	$259.96	$83.89	-$176.07	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 22.8¢	$51.08	$42.75	-$8.33	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$94.77	$25.52	-$69.26	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$3.8	$4.45	+$0.65	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 24.6¢	$3.27	$2.75	-$0.52	52% 9497-8605 (18102)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$0.15	$0.14	-$0.01	53% 2982-2598 (5580)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$2,326.18

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$231.38

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$259.96

Value

$83.89

PnL

-$176.07

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$51.08

Value

$42.75

PnL

-$8.33

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$94.77

Value

$25.52

PnL

-$69.26

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.65

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$3.27

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.52

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

2982-2598 (5580)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.