Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-11-05?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 38¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$45.43

Smart Money Entry

38.1¢ → 37.5¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,725

Combined PnL-$45.96

Yes1 trader

Total Value$9.38

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$0.53

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 39.2¢	$835.33	$788.89	-$46.44	50% 21140-21400 (42540)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 37¢	$591.36	$550.39	+$2.32	51% 25682-24404 (50086)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 37¢	$187.35	$187.35	+$0	50% 28404-28301 (56705)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$83.42	$83.42	-$0	64% 9850-5517 (15367)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 38¢	$177	$66.38	-$0.89	50% 1303-1289 (2592)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$52.1	$52.8	+$0.7	50% 25798-25487 (51285)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 38.2¢	$51.85	$50.19	-$1.66	48% 61012-65825 (126837)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$64.58	$24.22	+$0.32	53% 16777-14914 (31691)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$8.85	$9.38	+$0.53	54% 2568-2229 (4797)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 38.7¢	$16.3	$8.18	-$0.32	58% 46645-33616 (80261)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$5.99	$5.99	-$0	64% 9882-5579 (15461)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$835.33

Value

$788.89

PnL

-$46.44

Record

50%

21140-21400 (42540)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$591.36

Value

$550.39

PnL

+$2.32

Record

51%

25682-24404 (50086)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$187.35

Value

$187.35

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

28404-28301 (56705)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$83.42

Value

$83.42

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

9850-5517 (15367)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$177

Value

$66.38

PnL

-$0.89

Record

50%

1303-1289 (2592)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$52.1

Value

$52.8

PnL

+$0.7

Record

50%

25798-25487 (51285)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$51.85

Value

$50.19

PnL

-$1.66

Record

48%

61012-65825 (126837)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$64.58

Value

$24.22

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

16777-14914 (31691)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.85

Value

$9.38

PnL

+$0.53

Record

54%

2568-2229 (4797)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$16.3

Value

$8.18

PnL

-$0.32

Record

58%

46645-33616 (80261)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$5.99

Value

$5.99

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

9882-5579 (15461)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.