Exact Score: FC København 0 - 5 SK Iberia 1999?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$9.1K
$413.27
95.3¢ → 99.9¢
+5% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 99.5¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$13.75 | 51% 25682-24404 (50086) |
E4 e46m3 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $476.01 | $1.6K | +$121.94 | 67% 27398-13744 (41142) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 93.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$71.63 | 52% 1358-1276 (2634) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 92¢ | $947.75 | $946.33 | +$74.4 | 51% 1365-1324 (2689) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 91.3¢ | $875.96 | $874.65 | +$75.05 | 47% 11670-13363 (25033) |
 poshposh | Noavg 95.8¢ | $504.14 | $503.38 | +$20.64 | 57% 12665-9748 (22413) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 91.8¢ | $418.46 | $417.83 | +$33.8 | 53% 1403-1251 (2654) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $23.75 | $23.71 | +$1.86 | 50% 1303-1289 (2592) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $100 | $4.99 | +$0.2 | 48% 61012-65825 (126837) |
Invested
$3,557.97
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$13.75
Record
51%
25682-24404 (50086)
Invested
$476.01
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$121.94
Record
67%
27398-13744 (41142)
Invested
$1,183
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$71.63
Record
52%
1358-1276 (2634)
Invested
$947.75
Value
$946.33
PnL
+$74.4
Record
51%
1365-1324 (2689)
Invested
$875.96
Value
$874.65
PnL
+$75.05
Record
47%
11670-13363 (25033)
poshposhInvested
$504.14
Value
$503.38
PnL
+$20.64
Record
57%
12665-9748 (22413)
Invested
$418.46
Value
$417.83
PnL
+$33.8
Record
53%
1403-1251 (2654)
Invested
$23.75
Value
$23.71
PnL
+$1.86
Record
50%
1303-1289 (2592)
Invested
$100
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
61012-65825 (126837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.