Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-11-05?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$2.99

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 67.5¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$794.22

Total Shares1,222

Combined PnL-$1.59

Yes1 trader

Total Value$297.65

Total Shares838

Combined PnL+$4.58

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Noavg 65.3¢	$367.04	$365.63	-$1.42	50% 1301-1287 (2588)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$301.46	$297.65	+$4.58	16% 94-508 (602)
LI Limousin	Noavg 65.2¢	$225.07	$224.38	-$0.69	53% 1400-1248 (2648)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 64.1¢	$91.86	$93.11	+$1.25	51% 25630-24353 (49983)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 65.3¢	$79.4	$79.07	-$0.33	51% 1362-1323 (2685)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 62¢	$16.89	$17.3	+$0.41	48% 60760-65418 (126178)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$9.33	$8.78	-$0.55	51% 6327-6110 (12437)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 68.1¢	$4.18	$3.99	-$0.19	52% 1355-1274 (2629)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 67¢	$2.03	$1.97	-$0.06	53% 16660-14807 (31467)

MadridTime

Invested

$367.04

Value

$365.63

PnL

-$1.42

Record

50%

1301-1287 (2588)

forgotmydinnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$301.46

Value

$297.65

PnL

+$4.58

Record

16%

94-508 (602)

Limousin

Invested

$225.07

Value

$224.38

PnL

-$0.69

Record

53%

1400-1248 (2648)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$91.86

Value

$93.11

PnL

+$1.25

Record

51%

25630-24353 (49983)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$79.4

Value

$79.07

PnL

-$0.33

Record

51%

1362-1323 (2685)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$16.89

Value

$17.3

PnL

+$0.41

Record

48%

60760-65418 (126178)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$9.33

Value

$8.78

PnL

-$0.55

Record

51%

6327-6110 (12437)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$4.18

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$0.19

Record

52%

1355-1274 (2629)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$2.03

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

16660-14807 (31467)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.