Victoria Women T20I: Rwanda Women vs USA Women

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rwanda Women (88%) · Rwanda Women at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Rwanda Women59¢USA Women41¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rwanda Women

Consensus Traders

Rwanda Women 88%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$68.56

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 59¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralRwanda Women at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rwanda Women

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rwanda Women59%

USA Women41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rwanda Women7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,662

Combined PnL+$65.46

USA Women1 trader

Total Value$55.81

Total Shares72

Combined PnL+$3.1

Rwanda Women — 88%USA Women — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Rwanda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRwanda Women 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Rwanda Women 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Rwanda Womenavg 52.8¢	$722.62	$686.1	+$52.01	14% 93-562 (655)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Rwanda Womenavg 53¢	$526.89	$521.92	-$4.97	22% 77-281 (358)
CI cigarettes	Rwanda Womenavg 44.8¢	$112	$130	+$18	52% 5288-4799 (10087)
dips.<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 50.5¢	$91.77	$89.9	-$1.87	41% 184-261 (445)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	USA Womenavg 48.7¢	$52.72	$55.81	+$3.1	54% 1596-1343 (2939)
PL plusti<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 46¢	$45.99	$46.99	+$1	11% 4-31 (35)
probability<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 38¢	$3.63	$4.96	+$1.34	— 1-11 (12)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 43¢	$1.27	$1.23	-$0.04	50% 1375-1392 (2767)

tradecraft

Rwanda Women

Invested

$722.62

Value

$686.1

PnL

+$52.01

Record

14%

93-562 (655)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Rwanda Women

Invested

$526.89

Value

$521.92

PnL

-$4.97

Record

22%

77-281 (358)

cigarettes

Rwanda Women

Invested

$112

Value

$130

PnL

+$18

Record

52%

5288-4799 (10087)

dips.<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$91.77

Value

$89.9

PnL

-$1.87

Record

41%

184-261 (445)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

USA Women

Invested

$52.72

Value

$55.81

PnL

+$3.1

Record

54%

1596-1343 (2939)

plusti<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$45.99

Value

$46.99

PnL

+$1

Record

11%

4-31 (35)

probability<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$3.63

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$1.34

Record

—

1-11 (12)

Flaznorp<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

1375-1392 (2767)

Research grade

NeutralRwanda Women at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Rwanda Women

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Rwanda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRwanda Women 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Rwanda Women 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rwanda Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.