Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Honvéd (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold BakS eSports (70%) · BakS eSports at 61¢ · $440 held · ends Nov 5

BakS eSports61¢Honvéd39¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BakS eSports

Consensus Traders

BakS eSports 70%

Total Value

$440.47

Combined PnL

-$56.74

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 60.5¢

-19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

BakS eSports61%

Honvéd40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BakS eSports7 traders

Total Value$349.08

Total Shares534

Combined PnL-$47.58

Honvéd3 traders

Total Value$91.4

Total Shares373

Combined PnL-$9.16

BakS eSports — 70%Honvéd — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHonvéd 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrBakS eSports 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000BakS eSports 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	BakS eSportsavg 72.6¢	$300.04	$157.07	-$35.6	48% 7297-8002 (15299)
KA KaczkaCTR<$100	Honvédavg 33.6¢	$80.53	$66	-$14.53	51% 466-449 (915)
CI cigarettes<$100	BakS eSportsavg 68.9¢	$72.66	$61.3	-$11.36	53% 23194-20409 (43603)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F<$100	BakS eSportsavg 83.2¢	$58.94	$56.66	-$2.28	55% 234-188 (422)
38 38791873984189<$100	BakS eSportsavg 80¢	$34.05	$27.75	+$0.51	48% 60760-65418 (126178)
PA Pan9X<$100	BakS eSportsavg 79.3¢	$30	$24.45	+$0.65	49% 4465-4662 (9127)
LR lryyy<$100	BakS eSportsavg 76¢	$16.72	$17.16	+$0.44	47% 9360-10493 (19853)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Honvédavg 10.3¢	$7.18	$13.89	+$6.71	47% 11665-13338 (25003)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Honvédavg 20.1¢	$63.9	$11.5	-$1.34	50% 21108-21355 (42463)
FL Flaznorp<$100	BakS eSportsavg 79.1¢	$4.64	$4.69	+$0.05	51% 25630-24353 (49983)

Gaditima

BakS eSports

Invested

$300.04

Value

$157.07

PnL

-$35.6

Record

48%

7297-8002 (15299)

KaczkaCTR<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$80.53

Value

$66

PnL

-$14.53

Record

51%

466-449 (915)

cigarettes<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$72.66

Value

$61.3

PnL

-$11.36

Record

53%

23194-20409 (43603)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$58.94

Value

$56.66

PnL

-$2.28

Record

55%

234-188 (422)

38791873984189<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$34.05

Value

$27.75

PnL

+$0.51

Record

48%

60760-65418 (126178)

Pan9X<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$30

Value

$24.45

PnL

+$0.65

Record

49%

4465-4662 (9127)

lryyy<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$16.72

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$0.44

Record

47%

9360-10493 (19853)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$7.18

Value

$13.89

PnL

+$6.71

Record

47%

11665-13338 (25003)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$63.9

Value

$11.5

PnL

-$1.34

Record

50%

21108-21355 (42463)

Flaznorp<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.69

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

25630-24353 (49983)

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHonvéd 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrBakS eSports 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000BakS eSports 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BakS eSports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.