Counter-Strike: Isurus vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Isurus (22%) · Isurus at 60¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 11

Isurus60¢RED Canids Academy40¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Isurus

Consensus Traders

Isurus 22%

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$279.37

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 60¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralIsurus at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Isurus

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Isurus60%

RED Canids Academy40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Isurus2 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares16,826

Combined PnL+$330.3

RED Canids Academy7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,544

Combined PnL-$50.92

Isurus — 22%RED Canids Academy — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Isurus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRED Canids Academy 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedRED Canids Academy 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000RED Canids Academy 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Isurusavg 58¢	$9.5K	$9.9K	+$334.3	53% 122-107 (229)
BI biying88888CTR	RED Canids Academyavg 42.1¢	$634.69	$572.82	-$61.87	27% 62-169 (231)
VeryLucky888CTR	RED Canids Academyavg 40.3¢	$811.44	$508.68	+$22.58	49% 231-239 (470)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Isurusavg 61¢	$243.99	$239.99	-$4	9% 77-775 (852)
CI cigarettesCTR	RED Canids Academyavg 39¢	$195	$190	-$5	53% 5376-4855 (10231)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 42.9¢	$89.93	$79.6	-$10.33	37% 191-330 (521)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 35.8¢	$43.13	$16.07	+$4.31	48% 421-450 (871)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 43.7¢	$3.91	$3.4	-$0.51	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 40¢	$2	$1.9	-$0.1	31% 170-383 (553)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Isurus

Invested

$9,521.1

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$334.3

Record

53%

122-107 (229)

biying88888CTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$634.69

Value

$572.82

PnL

-$61.87

Record

27%

62-169 (231)

VeryLucky888CTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$811.44

Value

$508.68

PnL

+$22.58

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Isurus

Invested

$243.99

Value

$239.99

PnL

-$4

Record

77-775 (852)

cigarettesCTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$195

Value

$190

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

5376-4855 (10231)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$89.93

Value

$79.6

PnL

-$10.33

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

Pan9XCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$43.13

Value

$16.07

PnL

+$4.31

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$3.91

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.51

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

sentrioCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

Research grade

NeutralIsurus at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Isurus

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Isurus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRED Canids Academy 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedRED Canids Academy 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000RED Canids Academy 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Isurus wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.