Counter-Strike: STATE vs TheChampionGG (BO3) - United21 Group C
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold STATE (100%) · STATE at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
STATE
8
STATE 100%
$1.0K
$79.44
87.5¢ → 100¢
+14% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralSTATE at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on STATE. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | STATEavg 90.8¢ | $515.99 | $482.45 | +$13.86 | 47% 8799-9989 (18788) |
31 319113331313111 | STATEavg 81.7¢ | $487.54 | $293.42 | +$65.83 | 58% 518-378 (896) |
FL Flaznorp | STATEavg 89.7¢ | $139.65 | $131.27 | -$7.25 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
SE sentrio<$100 | STATEavg 89.1¢ | $37.74 | $35.29 | +$1.1 | 51% 28858-28213 (57071) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100 | STATEavg 89¢ | $25.81 | $27.26 | +$1.45 | 53% 6776-6000 (12776) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | STATEavg 85¢ | $17 | $18.7 | +$1.7 | 48% 72263-78012 (150275) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100 | STATEavg 75.5¢ | $10 | $9.35 | +$1.8 | 52% 6205-5726 (11931) |
LR lryyy<$100 | STATEavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $4.65 | +$0.95 | 48% 40329-43288 (83617) |
Invested
$515.99
Value
$482.45
PnL
+$13.86
Record
47%
8799-9989 (18788)
Invested
$487.54
Value
$293.42
PnL
+$65.83
Record
58%
518-378 (896)
Invested
$139.65
Value
$131.27
PnL
-$7.25
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
Invested
$37.74
Value
$35.29
PnL
+$1.1
Record
51%
28858-28213 (57071)
Invested
$25.81
Value
$27.26
PnL
+$1.45
Record
53%
6776-6000 (12776)
Invested
$17
Value
$18.7
PnL
+$1.7
Record
48%
72263-78012 (150275)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.35
PnL
+$1.8
Record
52%
6205-5726 (11931)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.95
Record
48%
40329-43288 (83617)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Gaditima
STATE — $482.45
319113331313111
STATE — $293.42
Flaznorp
STATE — $131.27
sentrio
STATE — $35.29
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
STATE — $27.26
38791873984189
STATE — $18.7
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
STATE — $9.35
lryyy
STATE — $4.65