Consensus PnL $89K · win rate 93% (3635–259, n=3894) · was PM monthly #624 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$88.9K
Record
3635W / 259L
Win Rate
93.0%
of 3894 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#213
Source
PM monthly #624
Record (90 d)
806/1244 · 65%
Trades
169
Markets
7,049
Volume
$2.3M
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Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 12 on the consensus side (58%)- Taranto: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Pierluigi BasilePierluigi Basile $25 · now 0¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (37% of 35)
- Bratislava 2: Dalibor Svrcina vs Norbert GombosDalibor Svrcina $18 · now 100¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (55% of 33)
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs angry birds (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group AInner Circle $17 · now 100¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (59% of 18)
- Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Rafael JodarRafael Jodar $5 · now 34¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Casper Ruud)
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-11-03?No $5 · now 27¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (55% of 80)
- Rolex Paris Masters: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Arthur GeaJan-Lennard Struff $5 · now 100¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (58% of 55)
- Costa do Sauipe: Lucas Da Silva vs Lautaro MidonLucas Da Silva $5 · now 0¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Lautaro Midon)
- Cali: Rebeka Masarova vs Alice TubelloRebeka Masarova $3 · now 0¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Alice Tubello)
Specialties
1,004 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 62¢- MLB
+45 pts
side won 99% of 77 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +45%
- NBA
+39 pts
side won 100% of 342 · avg entry 61¢
ROI −3%
- Soccer
+35 pts
side won 100% of 523 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +37%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 100% of 77)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 100% of 228)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 100% of 296)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 100% of 403)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.