Counter-Strike: your end vs Low Cortisol (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Low Cortisol (86%) · Low Cortisol at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Low Cortisol
7
Low Cortisol 86%
$1.0K
-$56.11
53.8¢ → 51.5¢
-4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralLow Cortisol at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Low Cortisol. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | Low Cortisolavg 55¢ | $550 | $510 | -$40 | 48% 7430-8147 (15577) |
FL Flaznorp | Low Cortisolavg 54¢ | $196.34 | $185.54 | -$10.81 | 51% 26298-24932 (51230) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Low Cortisolavg 52.9¢ | $181.66 | $175.11 | -$6.54 | 50% 21334-21619 (42953) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Low Cortisolavg 50.1¢ | $90.49 | $92.05 | +$1.55 | 50% 26078-25733 (51811) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Low Cortisolavg 51¢ | $42.52 | $42.94 | +$0.42 | 58% 47020-33905 (80925) |
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100 | your endavg 51.2¢ | $3.17 | $3 | -$0.17 | 53% 6272-5620 (11892) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Low Cortisolavg 62.2¢ | $3.11 | $2.55 | -$0.56 | 47% 4080-4639 (8719) |
Invested
$550
Value
$510
PnL
-$40
Record
48%
7430-8147 (15577)
Invested
$196.34
Value
$185.54
PnL
-$10.81
Record
51%
26298-24932 (51230)
Invested
$181.66
Value
$175.11
PnL
-$6.54
Record
50%
21334-21619 (42953)
Invested
$90.49
Value
$92.05
PnL
+$1.55
Record
50%
26078-25733 (51811)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$42.52
Value
$42.94
PnL
+$0.42
Record
58%
47020-33905 (80925)
Invested
$3.17
Value
$3
PnL
-$0.17
Record
53%
6272-5620 (11892)
Invested
$3.11
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.56
Record
47%
4080-4639 (8719)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.