Discord IPO before 2027?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$1.8K
$511.31
54¢ → 93.7¢
+74% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
29 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcat | Noavg 32.2¢ | $432.02 | $1.1K | +$655.45 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $439.63 | $452.17 | +$12.54 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $237.35 | $271.6 | +$34.25 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $2.75 | $23.41 | +$20.66 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $88 | $16.39 | -$71.61 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 88.6¢ | $77.33 | $5.96 | -$71.37 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
AM amisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 90.2¢ | $79.49 | $5.2 | -$68.61 | 88% 249-34 (283) |
Invested
$432.02
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$655.45
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$439.63
Value
$452.17
PnL
+$12.54
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$237.35
Value
$271.6
PnL
+$34.25
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
2B9S<$100Invested
$2.75
Value
$23.41
PnL
+$20.66
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$88
Value
$16.39
PnL
-$71.61
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$77.33
Value
$5.96
PnL
-$71.37
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$79.49
Value
$5.2
PnL
-$68.61
Record
88%
249-34 (283)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.