Will Manta FC win on 2026-11-03?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$1.6K
$164.25
57.8¢ → 92¢
+59% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 55.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.5K | +$357.64 | 51% 23399-22168 (45567) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $59.74 | $59.04 | -$0.7 | 53% 16384-14558 (30942) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $42.77 | $41.99 | -$0.79 | 53% 59038-51355 (110393) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 48¢ | $197.58 | $39.14 | -$158.44 | 50% 27298-27227 (54525) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 55.5¢ | $32.11 | $12.44 | -$19.67 | 57% 11866-8957 (20823) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $8.5 | $8.4 | -$0.1 | 58% 44610-32488 (77098) |
0X 0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $7.53 | $8.03 | +$0.5 | 15% 1116-6362 (7478) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $16.54 | $2.34 | -$14.19 | 54% 22035-19135 (41170) |
Invested
$1,102.24
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$357.64
Record
51%
23399-22168 (45567)
Invested
$59.74
Value
$59.04
PnL
-$0.7
Record
53%
16384-14558 (30942)
RN1<$100Invested
$42.77
Value
$41.99
PnL
-$0.79
Record
53%
59038-51355 (110393)
Invested
$197.58
Value
$39.14
PnL
-$158.44
Record
50%
27298-27227 (54525)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$32.11
Value
$12.44
PnL
-$19.67
Record
57%
11866-8957 (20823)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$8.5
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
58%
44610-32488 (77098)
Invested
$7.53
Value
$8.03
PnL
+$0.5
Record
15%
1116-6362 (7478)
Invested
$16.54
Value
$2.34
PnL
-$14.19
Record
54%
22035-19135 (41170)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.