Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 89¢ · $33K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$33.0K
$1.8K
84¢ → 89¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
1799h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
7 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL plumbis | Noavg 84.1¢ | $29.1K | $30.7K | +$1.5K | 57% 51-39 (90) |
 Donny.T | Noavg 83.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$108.09 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 84.2¢ | $210.51 | $219.1 | +$8.59 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 archaic | Noavg 76.4¢ | $4.4K | $147.1 | +$300.52 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
 aenews2CTR | Yesavg 28.6¢ | $233.7 | $93.78 | -$139.92 | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 79.7¢ | $55.96 | $20.96 | +$2.79 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 Optimus-<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $4.45 | +$1.35 | 61% 1200-768 (1968) |
Invested
$29,054.62
Value
$30.7K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
57%
51-39 (90)
Donny.TInvested
$1,827.86
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$108.09
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
Invested
$210.51
Value
$219.1
PnL
+$8.59
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
archaicInvested
$4,364.68
Value
$147.1
PnL
+$300.52
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
aenews2CTRInvested
$233.7
Value
$93.78
PnL
-$139.92
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
Invested
$55.96
Value
$20.96
PnL
+$2.79
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Optimus-<$100Invested
$3.05
Value
$4.45
PnL
+$1.35
Record
61%
1200-768 (1968)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.