Exact Score: Oxford City FC 2 - 0 Leicester City FC?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $783 held · ended Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$782.83
$1.22
98.5¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 98.5¢ | $339.75 | $340.51 | +$0.69 | 50% 1611-1639 (3250) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 98.5¢ | $182.19 | $182.59 | +$0.09 | 51% 1649-1557 (3206) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 98.5¢ | $111.72 | $111.97 | +$0.17 | 51% 26332-24957 (51289) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $88.2 | $88.3 | +$0.09 | 50% 1594-1615 (3209) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $32.9 | $33.03 | +$0.05 | 49% 14855-15647 (30502) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $26.08 | $26.19 | +$0.08 | 50% 26114-25775 (51889) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.18 | $0.23 | +$0.05 | 50% 37972-37225 (75197) |
Invested
$339.75
Value
$340.51
PnL
+$0.69
Record
50%
1611-1639 (3250)
Invested
$182.19
Value
$182.59
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
1649-1557 (3206)
Invested
$111.72
Value
$111.97
PnL
+$0.17
Record
51%
26332-24957 (51289)
Invested
$88.2
Value
$88.3
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
1594-1615 (3209)
Invested
$32.9
Value
$33.03
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
14855-15647 (30502)
Invested
$26.08
Value
$26.19
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
26114-25775 (51889)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.23
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
37972-37225 (75197)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.