Will El Gouna SC win on 2026-09-08?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $7K held · ended Sep 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$6.6K
-$9.05
91.9¢ → 91¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 91¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$42.02 | 58% 50269-36312 (86581) |
 RN1 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$54.64 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | +$10.8 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
AR ARocky33 | Noavg 95¢ | $209.49 | $200.67 | -$8.82 | 76% 4413-1366 (5779) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $90 | $91 | +$1 | 51% 1793-1714 (3507) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $52.2 | $52.78 | +$0.58 | 53% 16518-14663 (31181) |
Invested
$3,100.14
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$42.02
Record
58%
50269-36312 (86581)
RN1Invested
$2,130.34
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$54.64
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,412.36
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.8
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$209.49
Value
$200.67
PnL
-$8.82
Record
76%
4413-1366 (5779)
Invested
$90
Value
$91
PnL
+$1
Record
51%
1793-1714 (3507)
Invested
$52.2
Value
$52.78
PnL
+$0.58
Record
53%
16518-14663 (31181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.