Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-11-04?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$78.48

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,199

Combined PnL-$79.05

Yes1 trader

Total Value$112.72

Total Shares196

Combined PnL+$0.57

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 50.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$12.1	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
└ No leg	Noavg 50.7¢	$698.31	$681.76	-$16.55
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$428.88	$433.33	+$4.45
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Noavg 51.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$38.71	56% 6175-4947 (11122)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10.82	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
└ No leg	Noavg 50.8¢	$586.48	$571.42	-$15.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$425	$429.25	+$4.25
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 52.3¢	$760.55	$727.3	-$33.25	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 51¢	$149.05	$147.46	-$1.59	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 49.8¢	$112.15	$112.72	+$0.57	53% 16515-14663 (31178)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 54.2¢	$115	$106	-$5.3	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$14.9	$10	+$0.1	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.2	$5	-$0.15	50% 25480-25186 (50666)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 51¢	$5.14	$4.99	-$0.15	51% 7648-7364 (15012)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,127.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$12.1

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

Both legs:

No$698.3150.7¢-$16.55

Yes$428.8850¢+$4.45

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Invested

$1,133.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$38.71

Record

56%

6175-4947 (11122)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,011.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.82

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

Both legs:

No$586.4850.8¢-$15.07

Yes$42550¢+$4.25

Flaznorp

Invested

$760.55

Value

$727.3

PnL

-$33.25

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

38791873984189

Invested

$149.05

Value

$147.46

PnL

-$1.59

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$112.15

Value

$112.72

PnL

+$0.57

Record

53%

16515-14663 (31178)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$115

Value

$106

PnL

-$5.3

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$14.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

25480-25186 (50666)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$5.14

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.