Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 86¢ · $285 held · ends Dec 1

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$284.81

Combined PnL

-$1.95

Research grade

AvoidYes at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$107.33

Total Shares106

Combined PnL-$1.06

No3 traders

Total Value$6.25

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$0.89

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

374h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LornaPredictsARB<$100	Yesavg 83.9¢	$165.08	$171.23	+$6.15	17% 12-60 (72)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 83.9¢	$125.54	$125.75	+$0.21
└ No leg	Noavg 13.9¢	$39.53	$45.48	+$5.94
WA WarriorH<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$60.6	$60	-$0.6	— 0-12 (12)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$40.51	$37.56	-$0.59	— 1-10 (11)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$9.64	$9.77	+$0.13	41% 3010-4414 (7424)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 13.4¢	$46.13	$4.14	+$0.13	51% 265-255 (520)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$1.12	$1.64	+$0.51	4% 17-366 (383)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Noavg 17.9¢	$21.5	$0.48	-$1.53	— 10-8 (18)

LornaPredictsARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$165.08

Value

$171.23

PnL

+$6.15

Record

17%

12-60 (72)

Both legs:

Yes$125.5483.9¢+$0.21

No$39.5313.9¢+$5.94

WarriorH<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.6

Value

$60

PnL

-$0.6

Record

—

0-12 (12)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.51

Value

$37.56

PnL

-$0.59

Record

—

1-10 (11)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.64

Value

$9.77

PnL

+$0.13

Record

41%

3010-4414 (7424)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$46.13

Value

$4.14

PnL

+$0.13

Record

51%

265-255 (520)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$0.51

Record

17-366 (383)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Invested

$21.5

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$1.53

Record

—

10-8 (18)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

374h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.