Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 71%
$3.7K
-$181.27
97.2¢ → 99.7¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Mature
39h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL ElonSimp | Noavg 96.9¢ | $9.9K | $1.7K | -$32.58 | 33% 210-418 (628) |
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 95.8¢ | $3.0K | $1.1K | +$58.75 | 64% 2419-1339 (3758) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $608.78 | $600.82 | -$7.96 | 46% 5493-6443 (11936) |
ME merod | Noavg 98.7¢ | $267 | $269.61 | +$2.61 | 44% 2775-3599 (6374) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $43.14 | $43.97 | +$0.84 | 57% 17228-12894 (30122) |
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 2¢ | $200 | $20 | -$180 | 38% 600-995 (1595) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $26.3 | $3.38 | -$22.92 | 13% 4-27 (31) |
Invested
$9,895.7
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$32.58
Record
33%
210-418 (628)
Invested
$3,044.01
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$58.75
Record
64%
2419-1339 (3758)
Invested
$608.78
Value
$600.82
PnL
-$7.96
Record
46%
5493-6443 (11936)
Invested
$267
Value
$269.61
PnL
+$2.61
Record
44%
2775-3599 (6374)
Invested
$43.14
Value
$43.97
PnL
+$0.84
Record
57%
17228-12894 (30122)
Invested
$200
Value
$20
PnL
-$180
Record
38%
600-995 (1595)
Invested
$26.3
Value
$3.38
PnL
-$22.92
Record
13%
4-27 (31)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.