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5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 63¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$334.18

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 63¢

-31% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$690.52

Total Shares723

Combined PnL-$6.8

Yes5 traders

Total Value$693.16

Total Shares3,790

Combined PnL+$340.98

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 91.7¢	$472.92	$326.77	-$146.15	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 88¢	$115.64	$274.4	+$158.76	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$37.82	$264.76	+$226.95	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 14.6¢	$243.19	$233.16	-$10.03	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.89	$140	+$126.11	28% 1145-2969 (4114)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 86¢	$72.2	$64.44	-$7.76	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$400.93	$54.13	-$2	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
PE pelik<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$31.65	$19.96	-$11.69	99% 5182-74 (5256)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.91	$4.95	+$0.04	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$1.16	$1.11	-$0.05	49% 1800-1900 (3700)

Flaznorp

Invested

$472.92

Value

$326.77

PnL

-$146.15

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

38791873984189

Invested

$115.64

Value

$274.4

PnL

+$158.76

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Yes

Invested

$37.82

Value

$264.76

PnL

+$226.95

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$243.19

Value

$233.16

PnL

-$10.03

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$140

PnL

+$126.11

Record

28%

1145-2969 (4114)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$72.2

Value

$64.44

PnL

-$7.76

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$400.93

Value

$54.13

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

pelik<$100

Invested

$31.65

Value

$19.96

PnL

-$11.69

Record

99%

5182-74 (5256)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.