Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Arsenal FC, while the market favors Hull City AFC (77%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Arsenal FC (-3.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Arsenal FC (71%) · Arsenal FC at 23¢ · $376 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Arsenal FC
7
Arsenal FC 71%
$375.94
-$6.69
23.1¢ → 23¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidArsenal FC at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Hull City AFC 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Arsenal FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LooksMaxing101CTR | Arsenal FCavg 24¢ | $262.4 | $251.47 | -$10.92 | 51% 888-849 (1737) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Arsenal FCavg 22¢ | $67.18 | $67.18 | +$0 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Arsenal FCavg 20¢ | $43.06 | $47.36 | +$4.31 | 46% 5316-6151 (11467) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Hull City AFCavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $3.85 | -$0.05 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Hull City AFCavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $3.85 | -$0.05 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Arsenal FCavg 22¢ | $5 | $1.13 | +$0.03 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Arsenal FCavg 22¢ | $5 | $1.1 | +$0 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
LooksMaxing101CTRInvested
$262.4
Value
$251.47
PnL
-$10.92
Record
51%
888-849 (1737)
Invested
$67.18
Value
$67.18
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
Invested
$43.06
Value
$47.36
PnL
+$4.31
Record
46%
5316-6151 (11467)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$5
Value
$1.13
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$5
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.