Arsenal FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 0.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$5.01

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 96.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,045

Combined PnL+$6

Under4 traders

Total Value$134.36

Total Shares3,856

Combined PnL-$1

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SE sentrio	Overavg 96.1¢	$684.42	$686.95	+$2.53	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 96.3¢	$845.87	$275.71	+$3.1	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 3.4¢	$112.07	$115.36	-$1.65	49% 14983-15895 (30878)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 96.3¢	$106.76	$113.74	+$3.58	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Over leg	Overavg 96.3¢	$65.89	$66.06	+$0.17
└ Under leg	Underavg 3¢	$40.87	$47.68	+$3.41
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 96.6¢	$31.24	$31.58	+$0.34	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 3.4¢	$392.94	$13.16	-$0.2	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 96.6¢	$9.66	$9.65	-$0.01	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 96.1¢	$7.69	$7.72	+$0.03	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Underavg 2.8¢	$4.07	$5.01	+$0.86	55% 1426-1175 (2601)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 3.6¢	$0.84	$0.83	-$0.02	58% 21689-15792 (37481)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$684.42

Value

$686.95

PnL

+$2.53

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$845.87

Value

$275.71

PnL

+$3.1

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$112.07

Value

$115.36

PnL

-$1.65

Record

49%

14983-15895 (30878)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$106.76

Value

$113.74

PnL

+$3.58

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Over$65.8996.3¢+$0.17

Under$40.873¢+$3.41

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$31.24

Value

$31.58

PnL

+$0.34

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$392.94

Value

$13.16

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$9.66

Value

$9.65

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$7.69

Value

$7.72

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.07

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.86

Record

55%

1426-1175 (2601)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.