Arsenal FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 65¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 7

Over65¢Under35¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$48.3K

Combined PnL

-$542.87

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 64.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$41.1K

Total Shares64,264

Combined PnL-$538.59

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares19,977

Combined PnL-$4.28

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrOver 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 65.1¢	$34.0K	$33.4K	-$598.49	42% 8117-11313 (19430)
HO hovistomaradona	Overavg 63¢	$7.6K	$7.6K	+$60	56% 18-14 (32)
ND ndb1CTR	Underavg 36¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	-$0	64% 1055-598 (1653)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 36¢	$455.06	$455.06	-$0	50% 28880-28690 (57570)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 37¢	$137.77	$134.05	-$3.72	50% 26374-25995 (52369)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$19.58	$19.05	-$0.53	58% 21660-15754 (37414)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Overavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.2	-$0.13	53% 2689-2368 (5057)
DV dv-pm<$100	Overavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.18	+$0.03	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$3	$3	+$0	51% 6508-6274 (12782)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$2.16	$2.13	-$0.03	54% 10426-8742 (19168)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$34,040.76

Value

$33.4K

PnL

-$598.49

Record

42%

8117-11313 (19430)

hovistomaradona

Over

Invested

$7,560

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$60

Record

56%

18-14 (32)

ndb1CTR

Under

Invested

$6,578.29

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

1055-598 (1653)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$455.06

Value

$455.06

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

28880-28690 (57570)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$137.77

Value

$134.05

PnL

-$3.72

Record

50%

26374-25995 (52369)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.58

Value

$19.05

PnL

-$0.53

Record

58%

21660-15754 (37414)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

2689-2368 (5057)

dv-pm<$100

Over

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

6508-6274 (12782)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

10426-8742 (19168)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrOver 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.